To shape a positive future for Europe and its universities, we must proactively engage with possible futures.

The world is changing rapidly. Among the major drivers of change are political polarisation, geopolitical tensions and conflicts, economic instability and demographic decline. Not to forget migration, artificial intelligence and climate change. But how can universities best react to change, and indeed contribute to it?

Ahead of the European elections in 2024, EUA gathered members of its community for wide-ranging discussions on the future of Europe and our sector’s place within it.

Inspired by futures thinking and strategic foresight methodologies, the ‘Universities and the future of Europe’ project explored likely influences on the future of university cooperation for Europe’s universities in the next decade.

Diagram of drivers of change for European universities, clockwise from top left: Environmental drivers, including sustainability, climate change, extreme weather, health risks; Political drivers, including geopolitical conflicts, war, political polarisation, democratic backsliding; Economic/financial drivers, including high inflation; changing public spending priorities; Societal drivers, including demographic changes, migration/refugees, labour shortages, changes in values; Technological drivers, including further digitalisation, hybridisation, AI; Legal drivers, including restrictive legal frameworks impacting university autonomy and academic freedom, differentiation between types of institutions.

Based on this work, EUA published the ‘What if?’ report, which outlines four different forecasts of possible futures for transnational university cooperation with partners in Europe and beyond:

  • Growth: international cooperation in different forms grows as a survival strategy for universities that need to combat global challenges, innovate together and counter demographic decline;
  • Constraint: cooperation happens mainly in Europe, while international cooperation is strongly constrained and politically regulated;
  • Collapse: the system of cooperation as we know it today breaks down due to political polarisation, rising nationalism and conflicts and major natural disasters linked to climate change;
  • Transformation: a two-tier university system in an enlarged EU emerges, member states decide to pool competences and resources due to geopolitical, economic and demographic pressures.

Explore the ‘What if?’ forecasts

How can universities get the most out of strategic foresight and futures thinking methodologies?

In today’s world, universities need to enhance their institutional capacity to engage in transformation, rather than letting themselves be driven by external factors. This includes paying attention to early signals of change and exploring different possible futures.

Strategic foresight and futures thinking are tools that can help universities to proactively shape the future and make sure that they are prepared for whatever might come. To support our members in using these methodologies, EUA launched the ‘Universities Futures Lab’ – a podcast series featuring practitioners from universities across Europe.

Over five episodes, experts from Switzerland, the Netherlands and Finland outlined how they use foresight and futures in university strategy development. For example, how can a university use storytelling and create common vocabulary for meaningful and authentic exchanges about the future? What does setting up a foresight unit entail? Or, how can you use expert evidence in collective foresight processes?

Listen to more Universities Futures Lab episodes

EUA’s work with strategic foresight and futures thinking started with the development of ‘Universities without walls’, the Association’s vision for 2030. Published in 2021, it sets out a vision of resilient and effective universities, serving Europe’s societies towards a better future.

Catch up on ‘Universities without walls’

In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, this publication outlined how political developments within the EU, from digital regulations to enlargement and foreign policy, influence the political space in which European universities act and cooperate.

To further delve into these findings, EUA published ‘Pathways to the future’, which explores different scenarios and their impact on how European universities would achieve the vision of ‘Universities without walls’.

Across three key drivers of change for universities, this publication outlines nine scenarios:

Geopolitical change

  • Scenario 1: A tri-partite world
  • Scenario 2: A renewed transatlantic partnership
  • Scenario 3: Resurrection of multilateralism

Artificial intelligence and labour markets

  • Scenario 1: AI takes over
  • Scenario 2: Re- and upskilling
  • Scenario 3: Big tech competition

The course of democracy

  • Scenario 1: Technocrats take over
  • Scenario 2: The rise of authoritarianism
  • Scenario 3: Democratic revival through more direct participation

Download ‘Pathways to the future’

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